SECTION 3 - DISARMAMENT SCENARIOS
SCENARIOS, as they have come to be called, are hypothetical constructions of
future events. Inevitably, they are composed of varying proportions of
established fact, reasonable inference, and more or less inspired guesswork.
Those which have been suggested as model procedures for effectuating
international arms control and eventual disarmament are necessarily
imaginative, although closely reasoned; in this respect they resemble the "war
games" analyses of the Rand Corporation, with which they share a common
conceptual origin.
All such scenarios that have been seriously put forth imply a dependence on
bilateral or multilateral agreement between the great powers. In general, they
call for a progressive phasing out of gross armaments, military forces, weapons,
and weapons technology, coordinated with elaborate matching procedures of
verification, inspection, and machinery for the settlement of international
disputes. It should be noted that even proponents of unilateral disarmament
qualify their proposals with an implied requirement of reciprocity, very much in
the manner of a scenario of graduated response in nuclear war. The advantage
of unilateral initiative lies in its political value as an expression of good faith, as
well as in its diplomatic function as a catalyst for formal disarmament
negotiations.
The READ model for disarmament (developed by the Research Program on
Economic Adjustments to Disarmament) is typical of these scenarios. It is a
twelve-year program, divided into three-year stages. Each stage includes a
separate phase of: reduction of armed forces; cutbacks of weapons production,
inventories, and foreign military bases; development of international inspection
procedures and control conventions; and the building up of a sovereign
international disarmament organization. It anticipates a net matching decline in
U.S. defense expenditures of only somewhat more than half the 1965 level, but
a necessary redeployment of some five-sixths of the defense-dependent labor
force.
The economic implications assigned by their authors to various disarmament
scenarios diverge widely. The more conservative models, like that cited above,
emphasize economic as well as military prudence in postulating elaborate fail-
safe disarmament agencies, which themselves require expenditures substantially
substituting for those of the displaced war industries. Such programs stress the
advantages of the smaller economic adjustment entailed. Others emphasize, on
the contrary, the magnitude (and the opposite advantages) of the savings to be
achieved from disarmament. One widely read analysis estimates the annual cost
SCENARIOS, as they have come to be called, are hypothetical constructions of
future events. Inevitably, they are composed of varying proportions of
established fact, reasonable inference, and more or less inspired guesswork.
Those which have been suggested as model procedures for effectuating
international arms control and eventual disarmament are necessarily
imaginative, although closely reasoned; in this respect they resemble the "war
games" analyses of the Rand Corporation, with which they share a common
conceptual origin.
All such scenarios that have been seriously put forth imply a dependence on
bilateral or multilateral agreement between the great powers. In general, they
call for a progressive phasing out of gross armaments, military forces, weapons,
and weapons technology, coordinated with elaborate matching procedures of
verification, inspection, and machinery for the settlement of international
disputes. It should be noted that even proponents of unilateral disarmament
qualify their proposals with an implied requirement of reciprocity, very much in
the manner of a scenario of graduated response in nuclear war. The advantage
of unilateral initiative lies in its political value as an expression of good faith, as
well as in its diplomatic function as a catalyst for formal disarmament
negotiations.
The READ model for disarmament (developed by the Research Program on
Economic Adjustments to Disarmament) is typical of these scenarios. It is a
twelve-year program, divided into three-year stages. Each stage includes a
separate phase of: reduction of armed forces; cutbacks of weapons production,
inventories, and foreign military bases; development of international inspection
procedures and control conventions; and the building up of a sovereign
international disarmament organization. It anticipates a net matching decline in
U.S. defense expenditures of only somewhat more than half the 1965 level, but
a necessary redeployment of some five-sixths of the defense-dependent labor
force.
The economic implications assigned by their authors to various disarmament
scenarios diverge widely. The more conservative models, like that cited above,
emphasize economic as well as military prudence in postulating elaborate fail-
safe disarmament agencies, which themselves require expenditures substantially
substituting for those of the displaced war industries. Such programs stress the
advantages of the smaller economic adjustment entailed. Others emphasize, on
the contrary, the magnitude (and the opposite advantages) of the savings to be
achieved from disarmament. One widely read analysis estimates the annual cost
