would create an entirely new set of transition problems at least equal in
magnitude.
Credibility, in fact, lies at the heart of the problem of developing a political
substitute for war. This is where the space-race proposals, in many ways so well
suited as economic substitutes for war, fall short. The most ambitious and
unrealistic space project cannot of itself generate a believable external menace.
It has been hotly argued that such a menace would offer the "last, best hope of
peace," etc., by uniting mankind against the danger of destruction by "creatures"
from other planets or from outer space. Experiments have been proposed to test
the credibility of an out-of-our-world invasion threat; it is possible that a few of
the more difficult-to-explain "flying saucer" incidents of recent years were in
fact early experiments of this kind. If so, they could hardly have been judged
encouraging. We anticipate no difficulties in making a "need" for a giant super
space program credible for economic purposes, even were there not ample
precedent; extending it, for political purposes, to include features unfortunately
associated with science fiction would obviously be a more dubious undertaking.
Nevertheless, an effective political substitute for war would require "alternate
enemies," some of which might seem equally farfetched in the context of the
current war system. It may be, for instance, that gross pollution of the
environment can eventually replace the possibility of mass destruction by
nuclear weapons as the principal apparent threat to the survival of the species.
Poisoning of the air, and of the principal sources of food and water supply, is
already well advanced, and at first glance would seem promising in this respect;
it constitutes a threat that can be dealt with only through social organization and
political power. But from present indications it will be a generation to a
generation and a half before environmental pollution, however severe, will be
sufficiently menacing, on a global scale, to offer a possible basis for a solution.
It is true that the rate of pollution could be increased selectively for this
purpose; in fact, the mere modifying of existing programs for the deterrence of
pollution could speed up the process enough to make the threat credible much
sooner. But the pollution problem has been so widely publicized in recent years
that it seems highly improbably that a program of deliberate environ- mental
poisoning could be implemented in a politically acceptable manner.
However unlikely some of the possible alternate enemies we have mentioned
may seem, we must emphasize that one must be found, of credible quality and
magnitude, if a transition to peace is ever to come about without social
disintegration. It is more probably, in our judgement, that such a threat will
have to be invented, rather than developed from unknown conditions. For this
magnitude.
Credibility, in fact, lies at the heart of the problem of developing a political
substitute for war. This is where the space-race proposals, in many ways so well
suited as economic substitutes for war, fall short. The most ambitious and
unrealistic space project cannot of itself generate a believable external menace.
It has been hotly argued that such a menace would offer the "last, best hope of
peace," etc., by uniting mankind against the danger of destruction by "creatures"
from other planets or from outer space. Experiments have been proposed to test
the credibility of an out-of-our-world invasion threat; it is possible that a few of
the more difficult-to-explain "flying saucer" incidents of recent years were in
fact early experiments of this kind. If so, they could hardly have been judged
encouraging. We anticipate no difficulties in making a "need" for a giant super
space program credible for economic purposes, even were there not ample
precedent; extending it, for political purposes, to include features unfortunately
associated with science fiction would obviously be a more dubious undertaking.
Nevertheless, an effective political substitute for war would require "alternate
enemies," some of which might seem equally farfetched in the context of the
current war system. It may be, for instance, that gross pollution of the
environment can eventually replace the possibility of mass destruction by
nuclear weapons as the principal apparent threat to the survival of the species.
Poisoning of the air, and of the principal sources of food and water supply, is
already well advanced, and at first glance would seem promising in this respect;
it constitutes a threat that can be dealt with only through social organization and
political power. But from present indications it will be a generation to a
generation and a half before environmental pollution, however severe, will be
sufficiently menacing, on a global scale, to offer a possible basis for a solution.
It is true that the rate of pollution could be increased selectively for this
purpose; in fact, the mere modifying of existing programs for the deterrence of
pollution could speed up the process enough to make the threat credible much
sooner. But the pollution problem has been so widely publicized in recent years
that it seems highly improbably that a program of deliberate environ- mental
poisoning could be implemented in a politically acceptable manner.
However unlikely some of the possible alternate enemies we have mentioned
may seem, we must emphasize that one must be found, of credible quality and
magnitude, if a transition to peace is ever to come about without social
disintegration. It is more probably, in our judgement, that such a threat will
have to be invented, rather than developed from unknown conditions. For this
